China is very updated in all of technology stuff and I think chatbots are the only area in which they are not ranked in the top 3 so I think very soon we’ll see what they are planning.
-0.23717
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Dec 29, 2024 02:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Nov 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025
35%
No
Nov 29, 2024 to Nov 29, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2024 03:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
Yes
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
60%
No
Oct 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
I think that's because they are always testing their nuclear weapons but they haven't done it in a while.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 24, 2024 03:17AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
30%
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
There’s a bunch of reasons such as the tensions beetween many countries around it, their nuclear program, there’s also a type of rivalty with israel, etc.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think he will because at first a lot of people and organizations were concerned but right now everyone has forgotten this. To get him out of the presidence is necessary to make some policies against him and his goverment because he will keep shutting all of the internal “rebels”
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Because some countries might get in the way of Maduro’s dictatorship
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
It’s hard to know for sure because, while it does have leadership in AI among other things, there’s a lot of competition in this sector and the market is very volatile. Regulations are lacking and the market is very umpredictable so all of this factors may be against NVIDIA
Files