Rapid advancements in biotechnology and potential lapses in regulation or safety measures could lead to unforeseen consequences, making a high-consequence event more likely than anticipated.
0.028752
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Strict regulations and oversight significantly reduce this probability
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
89%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Telecom operators, especially the major players (Verizon, AT&T, etc.), are still in the early stages of testing and deploying O-RAN-based equipment. Full-scale certification may take more time to roll out.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If major telecom operators in North America push for O-RAN adoption or if new funding or initiatives are launched to facilitate O-RAN deployments, there could be an urgent push to get O-RAN certificates issued to ensure market competitiveness.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2025 10:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
80%
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Currently, the top LLMs on global leaderboards, like Chatbot Arena, are predominantly developed by Western organizations (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic). These companies have the advantage of massive computational resources, funding, research expertise, and broader data access, which are difficult for any single Chinese organization to overcome in just one year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It’s possible that a Chinese organization makes an unexpected breakthrough in model architecture, training methodologies, or optimization techniques that allows their LLM to significantly outperform current competitors, thus vaulting them into the top 3.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
The United States, along with allies like the Netherlands and Japan, has imposed export controls that restrict China's access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, including cutting-edge lithography machines
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Huawei dominates the RAN market, has little incentive to adopt Open RAN due to concerns over losing market control, perceives it as a Western-led initiative undermining its dominance, and prefers proprietary solutions, while geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US, further discourage alignment with Western-driven initiatives.
Why might you be wrong?
Geopolitical tensions could ease, leading to a change in Huawei's stance towards Western-led initiatives.