skyhawk107

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138000
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New Prediction
skyhawk107
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
10%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
32%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
55%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?

I seriously doubt that international factors will meaningfully change sufficient to alter the Iranian government's strategic calculations which motivate it to enrich the uranium. Further, the strengthening of relations with Russia helps Iran mitigate the consequences of sanctions which are intended to drive desparation and encourage capitulation on nuclear and other issues.

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Why might you be wrong?

The removal of IAEA monitoring devices and general hostility of Iran to verification by the IAEA may lead to a perception by the IAEA that stockpiles have been reduced. Further, at undeclared nuclear sites, Iran could refine additional uranium to compensate for reductions to their stockpile to appease the international inspectors. 

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

I expect that Microsoft will eventually be forced to close the laboratory, but I don't expect it to happen until after the US 2024 election, more specifically until a new administration takes office in Jan 2025. In short, I don't expect a lame-duck change of US policy to force Microsoft's hand. 

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