Venezuela has taken a strong stance on the offshore Guyanese oil wells, which makes it one of the most likely scenarios. However, the international implications of a full-scale ground invasion of Guyana (as well as the intervention of the United States make a conflict of that sort unlikely. What seems most likely is that Guyana will cede some of the territory to Venezuela.
-0.002952
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
38%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
13%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
41%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
58%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
42%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
While Iran appears hesitant to declare an all-out war on Israel at the moment, increased violence by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and today's launching of ballistic missiles into the country makes it likely Israel will declare war on Iran.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
Yes
93%
No
The head of Microsoft Research denied claims that Microsoft was planning to close its lab in China. The Financial Times is not a primary source for information.
Files
Based on the activity in the international community, I think it is likely Israel or the US conducts an attack.