Confirmed previous forecast
0.946743
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 61 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 46 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent developments indicate that Russia will escalate and intensify its operations as a reaction to the US House resolution to provide a substantial aid package to Ukraine. Operational effects from implementing this aid package might take about 6 months to ramp up, so intensified Russian aggression can be projected for the coming months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Accelerated implementation of the US Aid package, reinforcing Ukrainian defense capabilities and enabling Ukrainian offensive measures to deter Russian action.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2023 02:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(-69%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2023 to Nov 28, 2023
Current developments point towards a prolonged conflict.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-59%)
Yes
Imran Khan's chances are close to nil.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Has not happened yet as of today.
Why might you be wrong?
An attack could be imminent, but still unknown to the world.