Confirmed previous forecast
0.01955
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 5 | 23 | 12 | 23 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
78%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
22%
(0%)
No
Mar 29, 2025 to Sep 29, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Argentina
7%
(0%)
Bolivia
5%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Estonia
5%
(0%)
Latvia
5%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
yes
Files
Why might you be wrong?
no
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files