Given geopolitical pressure Microsoft will quietly and gradually exit China. But doing accomplishing this in such a swift fashion is difficult, hence the lower degree of confidence.
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Why do you think you're right?
The Iranian regime is on the backfoot with the recent killing of key Hezbollah leaders, particularly Nasrallah. Hezbollah has been exposed, and Israel and its Western allies will attempt to increase the pressure on the Iranian Supreme Leader. Given the widespread protests in Iran a few years ago the country is ripe for change. An exposed nuclear program via cyberhack would strengthen Western resolve to dethrone the Supreme Leader.
Why might you be wrong?
Simultaneously, Western forces may fear further escalation from Iran and attempt diplomatic resolution to unrest in the Middle East. The fear may be sending Iran into further chaos and who may seize power in such a vacuum.