Putin maintains a strong grip on power through control of political institutions, media, and security forces, with no credible opposition or viable successors to challenge his authority.
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3
Forecasts
0
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The political climate in Russia has already seen periodic unrest, such as in 2011-2012, and dissatisfaction with the government could grow, particularly if living standards decline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Stock market conditions, economic downturns, or regulatory hurdles could slow Nvidia’s growth, preventing it from reaching the top.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Nvidia’s dominance in AI and GPU markets, driven by growing demand for AI and data centers, could push its market cap significantly higher.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 30, 2025 10:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025
95%
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
International pressure or diplomacy, such as talks with the U.S. or China, might deter North Korea from conducting a test in the short term.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
North Korea may conduct a test to strengthen its bargaining position in diplomatic negotiations or to showcase defiance against international sanctions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Achieving self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing is viewed as essential for national security and Government is super focused on this.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The weakening of Iran's proxy network and its diminishing influence in Syria significantly reduce its ability to project power and engage in direct conflict. As Iran loses key strategic allies and territorial control, its capacity for destabilizing actions in the region is limited, which could force it to rely more on indirect methods or diplomatic channels to assert its interests.
Why might you be wrong?
The ongoing tensions with the US, Israel, and other regional powers heighten the risk of miscalculations or escalations. With complex rivalries and conflicting interests, small incidents or provocations could rapidly escalate into broader conflicts. Iran's frustration with its reduced influence could lead to unpredictable actions, while the US and Israel may take preemptive measures to safeguard their interests, further increasing the potential for unintended consequences.