The attacks have already occurred, jut no kinetic effects yet.
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Question Suggested
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 7, 2026
25%
No
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 7, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ran out of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
U.S. political pressure
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Death of a key player, e.g., Putin, Trump
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decline of the large language model market bubble.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The current ML bubble may last longer than I posit.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Knowledge of ASML Technology ology and the difficult development process
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Chinese may have compromised ASML security.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Continued economic expansion of China in Africa coupled with decline of U.S.. influence since dissolution of USAID
Why might you be wrong?
Conflict elsewhere