whiteheads

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Relative Brier Score
1364000.511.522.533.54
Questions Forecasted

4

Forecasts

0

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 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Continued economic expansion of China in Africa coupled with decline of U.S.. influence since dissolution of USAID

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Conflict elsewhere

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

The attacks have already occurred, jut no kinetic effects yet.

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Why might you be wrong?

Ran out of time

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

U.S. political pressure

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Death of a key player, e.g., Putin, Trump

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Decline of the large language model market bubble.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The current ML bubble may last longer than I posit.

Files
New Badge
whiteheads
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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whiteheads
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Knowledge of ASML Technology ology and the difficult development process

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Why might you be wrong?

Chinese may have compromised ASML security.

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Files
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