RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.271725
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.06367
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.194747
Feb 8, 2022 06:49AM	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	0.396066
Jan 4, 2022 01:16PM	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	-0.058798
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.200536
Jan 1, 2022 01:40PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.147994
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.094428
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.011198
Nov 13, 2020 04:08PM	When will China officially recognize a winner of the U.S. presidential election?	0.091733
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	1.051284
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.020021
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.000208
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.002669
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM	Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?	0.00046