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New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Feb 7, 2025 04:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 7, 2025 to Jul 7, 2025
25%
(0%)
No
Jan 7, 2025 to Jul 7, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 09:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
98%
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Hmmm stuff on this is very behind the scenes and takes time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be not optimistic enough!
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 4, 2025 09:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75%
Yes
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
25%
No
Dec 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I'm optimistic.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I could be misinterpreting the times.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Netanyahu just said he wants to gift Trump with an end to hostilites in Lebanon but I don't know that that will happen before January because Trump isn't in office till January.
Files