65th
Accuracy Rank

chern-yi-Lee

chern yi Lee
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0.132359

Relative Brier Score
136000
Questions Forecasted
1110-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1
Scored Questions

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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 Definitions
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chern-yi-Lee
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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
chern-yi-Lee
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jan 24, 2025 09:03AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Dec 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2025
90%
No
Dec 24, 2024 to Dec 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Currently we haven't seen any big news or hype about a company based on China introducing their LLM.
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Why might you be wrong?

The R&D situation in China is always a myth, the low transparency of their technology information is a reason that my prediction based on available information will get wrong.

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