Brandon-De-Bruhl

Using a 6-factor investing analysis (Momentum [high], Quality [high], Size [large relative to segment], Value [low relative to segment], Volatility [42.09%], Growth [slowing]), the overall overperformance over the last two quarters has average analyst rating this down. Most telling, the continued supply pressure, potential political volatility, and increased demand for substitute goods (AI) mark this as likely reaching a more stable equilibrium point. With a market cap nearing $3.30 trillion, Nvidia is already one of the largest companies. Nvidia's high P/E ratio (around 53.08)1 suggests it's not a value stock. This factor may worsen slightly as growth moderates. Revenue growth is expected to slow from 122% to 80% year-over-year and 43% in FY 20263. Growth remains strong but is moderating. This drives likely moderation in stock performance. Given that there is unlikely to be a new product that will vastly improve AI performance before May 31st since the RTX 50 series seems to be marginal but may show stronger performance if there are exogenous shocks to the market. However, it's unlikely to exceed APPL at 3.75T.

Based on Bayesian probabilities and simulations, the likelihood of significant military action by the People's Liberation Army against Taiwan in the next six months is low. This suggests that while tensions remain high, a full-scale invasion is the least probable outcome at approximately 15%. A naval or air blockade emerges as the most likely form of escalation, with a posterior probability of about 45%, followed closely by the possibility of limited attacks at 40%. However, the Markov chain simulation indicates that the steady-state probability of maintaining the status quo (no conflict) is dominant at roughly 70%. These findings are consistent with current economic indicators, military preparedness assessments, and geopolitical factors, which collectively act as deterrents against immediate large-scale military action. 

The estimated 35% probability for a Chinese-built LLM ranking in the top 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard within the next 12 months is supported by recent developments and the logit range of [-0.85, 0.41]. This probability falls slightly below the midpoint of the range, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook. Chinese AI companies have rapidly progressed, with models like DeepSeek v3 ranking 7th on the leaderboard and Alibaba's Qwen models showing strong performance. The cost-effectiveness of Chinese AI development, as seen with DeepSeek v3's efficient training, also bolsters their competitive position. However, the 35% estimate acknowledges the significant challenge of displacing top U.S. models from Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic, which currently dominate the leaderboard. It also factors in potential hurdles such as U.S. export controls on advanced chips. This probability suggests that while a top-3 ranking for a Chinese LLM is plausible, it remains a challenging goal given the current landscape and the pace of global AI advancement.

Using factor investing principles and macroeconomic models, the probability of Egypt experiencing an economic collapse in the next 12 months is effectively 0%. This assessment is supported by several key indicators: projected GDP growth of 4.0% by June 2025, which is well above distress levels; an expected decline in inflation to 21.2% in 2025, significantly below hyperinflation thresholds; and a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 83% in FY25, under the 100% unsustainable debt threshold. The Central Bank of Egypt's tight monetary policy, with an overnight deposit rate of 27.25%, demonstrates a commitment to controlling inflation. Additionally, Egypt's economic stability is bolstered by robust foreign exchange reserves of $38,194 million, record FDI inflows of $46.1 billion in FY 2023/2024, and an expanded $8 billion IMF program. While challenges such as high inflation and external debt persist, ongoing structural reforms and improving macroeconomic indicators significantly mitigate the risk of economic collapse, providing a strong foundation for continued stability and growth in the Egyptian economy.