aitana-higuera

Aitana Higuera
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Relative Brier Score
13620-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.822.2
Questions Forecasted

2

Forecasts

0

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 Definitions
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New Prediction
aitana-higuera
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
65%
Yes
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
35%
No
Feb 28, 2025 to Aug 28, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

I believe this event is likely to happen because of North Korea's historical patterns, recent intelligence, and geopolitical factors. In the past, North Korea has used nuclear tests to demonstrate strength and gain leverage in negotiations, particularly when tensions with the U.S. and South Korea are high. Additionally, with global attention focused on the war in Ukraine, U.S. and China's commercial tensions, North Korea may see this as an opportunity to act with fewer immediate consequences. Given these factors, a nuclear test in the upcoming future appears likely.

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Why might you be wrong?

The factors I consider that this event is unlikely to happen is due to the pressure from its allies, lack of clear evidence, and internal challenges. China, North Korea’s main supporter, wants stability in the region and would likely discourage a test to avoid more sanctions. So far, there have been no confirmed signs of nuclear test preparations at known sites. North Korea is internally struggling and focusing on nuclear tests could make things worse for the government. 

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My First Question

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aitana-higuera
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

when would putinΒ΄s ambition stop?

  • Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all part of NATO, if Russia attacks them, it would have to fight  the entire alliance. 
  • Russia is still fighting Ukraine and has lost a lot of soldiers, weapons, and money.
  • Russia is already sanctioned because of the war in Ukraine, and attacking NATO countries would bring even worse economic punishment.


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Why might you be wrong?
  • if Ukraine surrenders or is forced into a settlement that favors Russia, Putin might feel emboldened to expand his influence further, because his vision aligns more with imperial Russia.
  • If things go badly for Putin, such as economic collapse, protests, or political challenges, he might start a new military conflict to distract the population.
  • If the U.S. or other key NATO countries show signs of not wanting to defend the Baltics, Russia might take advantage of that uncertainty.
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