when would putin´s ambition stop?
- Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are all part of NATO, if Russia attacks them, it would have to fight the entire alliance.
- Russia is still fighting Ukraine and has lost a lot of soldiers, weapons, and money.
- Russia is already sanctioned because of the war in Ukraine, and attacking NATO countries would bring even worse economic punishment.
Why do you think you're right?
I believe this event is likely to happen because of North Korea's historical patterns, recent intelligence, and geopolitical factors. In the past, North Korea has used nuclear tests to demonstrate strength and gain leverage in negotiations, particularly when tensions with the U.S. and South Korea are high. Additionally, with global attention focused on the war in Ukraine, U.S. and China's commercial tensions, North Korea may see this as an opportunity to act with fewer immediate consequences. Given these factors, a nuclear test in the upcoming future appears likely.
Why might you be wrong?
The factors I consider that this event is unlikely to happen is due to the pressure from its allies, lack of clear evidence, and internal challenges. China, North Korea’s main supporter, wants stability in the region and would likely discourage a test to avoid more sanctions. So far, there have been no confirmed signs of nuclear test preparations at known sites. North Korea is internally struggling and focusing on nuclear tests could make things worse for the government.