A lack of progress in pursuing structural reforms has precluded Egypt from developing necessary resilience to internal, regional, or global shocks. While improved relative to last year, Egypt remains vulnerable to renewed crisis conditions in the next 12 months and its lifelines appear less reliable than they were in the past. While not necessarily likely given the current support received to bolster reserves, the exposure risk alone warrants the forecast, especially when looked at in terms of global trends and the frequency of major shocks in Egypt.
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Questions Forecasted
4
Forecasts
2
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Egypt will continue to struggle with some major threats to economic stability and growth. Inflation will remain high and debts will still be a net drag on growth. Whether these conditions worsen to meet the threshold of collapse, however, seems unlikely, but could very well occur if future IMF, EU, or regional support dwindles, global demand weakens, or additional regional instability continues.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Putin has a strong grip on power. Baring a dramatic change to his health, he will remain in power during the prediction period.
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Why might you be wrong?
Putin’s age leaves open the possibility of an acute change in his health that would result in him no longer holding the presidency.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Mar 2, 2025 to Sep 2, 2025
90%
No
Mar 2, 2025 to Sep 2, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
As the PRC’s military becomes increasingly well prepared for such an action, the unpredictability of Trump administration response and concerns over economic consequences will prevent any quick movements. PRC efforts will remain non-military and focus on negotiations with the new U.S. administration with the intention of undercutting U.S. support for Taiwan. If negotiations fail, a blockade is the most likely escalation.
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Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictable behavior from Washington may lead the PRC to determine that the best solution is to act quickly. This could be further escalated by internal political pressure or continued slights from Taiwan itself.
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Why do you think you're right?
The military-leader of Myanmar publicly stated elections will not be held until December 2025 or January 2026, at the earliest.
Why might you be wrong?
Conditions in Myanmar are volatile and subject to change with little notice.