Russia, emboldened by the US, will pressure EU to abandon Ukraine
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026
50%
No
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Russia figures that US support is enough
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Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Very little overlap between what Ukraine will accept and what Russia will accept. Plus, Russia has big problems if all those soldiers are unemployed and home at once.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump will push heavily into seeing Ukraine defeated.
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Why do you think you're right?
The US is all in for Putin and Russia. It will abandon NATO, and completely support Russian territorial clams in the Baltics. This will be their next territorial goal after Ukraine is settled.
Why might you be wrong?
Russia might need more time to re-arm and re-equip from their losses in Ukraine.