| Date Ended | Question | Relative Brier Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM | Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? | -0.001448 |
| Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM | Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? | 0.065404 |
| May 1, 2024 04:01AM | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? | -0.002179 |
| Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM | Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? | -0.000113 |
| Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? | -0.022706 |
| Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM | Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) | 0.000011 |