Confirmed previous forecast
0.000613
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 55 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-10%)
Yes
70%
(+10%)
No
Passage of time with no movement towards resolution. Israel is now preoccupied on their northern front too, removing some of the pressure to formally resolve.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-25%)
Yes
60%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Many false starts and the assassination of a senior Hamas official in Iran + the passage of time towards 12/1 is driving me to lower the likelihood to 40%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Americans could make an extreme push to try and exert their influence to make this happen before Biden leaves office (among other things)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(0%)
Yes
35%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-5%)
Yes
97%
(+5%)
No
Dynamics have not changed, lowering again for time passing.
Files