RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.016064
Jan 31, 2022 03:14PM	How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years? - 2021	0.093805
Jan 3, 2022 01:44PM	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.049975
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.120298
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM	When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?	0.384497
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.659353
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.012095
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.361579