following the crowd prediction
0.608713
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 9 | 42 | 38 | 68 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 22 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-10%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
90%
(+10%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Kharkiv
1%
(0%)
Kyiv
1%
(0%)
Odesa
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(0%)
Yes
1%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files