RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	0.0
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	0.0
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.000002
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.000001
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	0.016948
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.025495
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.091964
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.0
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC	Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023?	0.187169
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022)	-0.001265
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	-0.004566
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000366
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.165448
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022)	-0.010155
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	0.127035
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.017983
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	-0.02061
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021)	-0.012329
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021)	0.0
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.001867

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