RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.12818
Jan 3, 2022 01:41PM	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.021666
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	-0.002869
Feb 1, 2021 02:48PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.007471
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.001277
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.001775
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	0.587389
Oct 1, 2020 02:37PM	What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?	0.051628
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM	Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?	-0.0002