RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.072661
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.255253
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.086711
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.051799
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.068544
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	0.169103
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	0.003804
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.008957
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.052264
Mar 18, 2021 06:27PM	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	0.028088
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.065043
Feb 5, 2021 05:35PM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2020?	0.00095
Nov 3, 2020 05:49PM	Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?	-0.003529
Nov 3, 2020 02:25PM	Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?	-0.033701
Oct 15, 2020 04:00AM	Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?	-0.012296
Oct 1, 2020 04:00AM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?	-0.000508