Though the website says there is a summer data pause so we aren't seeing the data from the last few weeks of August, it was still well enough under that I don't think it will get to 1000.
0.979948
Relative Brier Score
151
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
Deadline is tomorrow, and as of right now they are still under 3 million according to their website.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Hasn't happened yet, about to hit the deadline.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 40
100%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 100
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
(0%)
Less than 20%
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-8%)
Yes
Dropping due to passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Less than 7%
23%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
36%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
37%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Averaging out the bins a bit as I'm not sure how this will swing yet by December
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022
0%
(0%)
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023
0%
(-1%)
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023
100%
(+1%)
Not before 1Q 2024
No updates on this, putting it all in not before IQ 2024
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
Dropping to zero as we are almost at the closing date.
Files
Same rationale as ACLED data in India, even without the data from the last few weeks it is still way below 800.