RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.091664
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.131134
Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.016079
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.265525
Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?	0.083283
Nov 16, 2021 02:24PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.065093
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	0.045668
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	0.027873
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.119077
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.082158
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	0.004384
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	-0.000099
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.038988
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.01945
Apr 1, 2021 04:51PM	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.017533
Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.00919
Feb 1, 2021 02:49PM	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.000907
Feb 1, 2021 02:48PM	How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.045449
Feb 1, 2021 02:47PM	How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	0.17556
Jan 4, 2021 01:58PM	What will the ratio of AI publications to machine learning research job postings be for Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft, combined, in 2020?	-0.043619

Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

0.091664

Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

-0.131134

Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

-0.016079

Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

-0.265525