RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	0.019075
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.134003
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.010447
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?	-0.104942
Jan 31, 2022 02:28PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.009405
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC	How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?	-0.045503
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC	How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?	0.328961
Jan 03, 2022 01:44PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?	-0.024055
Jan 03, 2022 01:41PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?	-0.068774
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.234202
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	-0.004163
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	0.135664
Sep 23, 2021 10:19AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?	-0.134796
Jul 30, 2021 11:11AM UTC	What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?	-0.146703
Jul 01, 2021 05:32PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.008114
Apr 17, 2021 09:56PM UTC	How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.000064
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.0355
Apr 01, 2021 04:51PM UTC	How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.012557
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.060261
Feb 01, 2021 02:49PM UTC	How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?	-0.021451

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