Confirmed previous forecast
-0.787076
Relative Brier Score
45
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 8 | 65 | 45 | 96 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
lower
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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Top Forecaster - Aug 2024
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