ElisaNorio

Elisa Norio
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Independent Researcher Crime and Security/Transnational Organized Crime and Tourism, Drug Trafficking, NPS, Darknet crypto markets, Extortion. Europe and the Americas.

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? -0.499876
    May 31, 2022 03:08PM Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.105832
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.15704
    Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.11666
    Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.013959
    Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.207369
    Jan 1, 2022 05:00AM What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? -0.087174
    Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.004313
    Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.261173
    Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.00505
    Mar 7, 2021 09:22PM What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? -0.097083
    Feb 1, 2021 02:48PM How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive? 0.018003
     
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