ElisaNorio

Elisa Norio
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Independent Researcher Crime and Security/Transnational Organized Crime and Tourism, Drug Trafficking, NPS, Darknet crypto markets, Extortion. Europe and the Americas.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? -0.499876
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.105832
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.15704
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.11666
Jan 01, 2022 02:17PM UTC Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? -0.013959
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.207369
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? -0.087174
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) 0.004313
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? -0.261173
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) 0.00505
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