RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.014572
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.00375
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC	Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?	-0.26161
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.013387
Apr 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?	0.008957
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.291121
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.136866

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