HarrisonD

Harrison
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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.021048
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? 0.003435
    Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.001837
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? 0.001237
    Mar 1, 2023 05:00AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? 0.019202
    Feb 2, 2023 05:00AM Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) 0.00036
    Jan 1, 2023 05:01AM Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.004683
    Nov 6, 2022 08:00PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) 0.028703
    Sep 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 3, 2022 and Sep 3, 2022) 0.000439
    Aug 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 3, 2022 and Aug 3, 2022) 0.000348
    Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.072984
    May 31, 2022 03:08PM Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.111031
    May 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) 0.00088
    Apr 3, 2022 10:00PM Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) -0.008258
    Mar 1, 2022 05:00AM Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.005811
    Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.137628
    Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) -0.032305
    Jan 1, 2022 02:17PM Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? 0.01127
    Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? 0.000521
    Jan 1, 2022 01:49PM Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? 0.002484
     
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