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Forecasted Questions

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2023 04:04PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 8% 1%
No 92% 99%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 70% 11%
No 30% 89%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 5% 1%
No 95% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 12, 2024 03:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 12, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 18% 27%
No 82% 73%
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