RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.174919
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.091355
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.003062
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.095953
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?	-0.000673
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?	0.005118
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC	On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035?	-0.105656
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2022, will Impossible Foods announce a date for their IPO?	-0.006692
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC	Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022?	-0.001191
Jul 28, 2022 07:10PM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a tax credit for semiconductor manufacturing or design before 1 January 2023?	-0.017682
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	-0.003338
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	0.028852
Mar 16, 2022 04:00PM UTC	In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?	0.058677
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?	-0.015189
Jan 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?	-0.325175

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