RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 74

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 42 · 78

41%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 89

54%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 91 · 195

0%

Chance

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 37 · 109

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 44 · 153

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Closing May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 99 · 320

11%

Chance

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Closing Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 122 · 335

1%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 49 · 220

25%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 23 · 82

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Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

41%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

54%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

11%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

25%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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41%

54%

0%

11%

1%

25%