How it works:

Step

You submit a forecasting question you’d like to see published on RFI (read the guidance for question submissions).

Step

You, admins, and other forecasters collaborate and iterate on the question details to make sure it's well formed and includes answer options for all possible outcomes.

Step

Forecasters vote on suggested questions to surface topics that are of most interest to the community.

Step

An admin will make a final decision and publish the best questions for forecasting.

Pending Published Archived
Pinned Question Votes Question Author Status Submitted
/ Last Edited
Pinned Question
0
Is the European Union at risk of disintegration by 2034 due to growing political and economic tensions among its members?
aitana-higuera
Open 01/31/25 06:26am 01/31/25 06:26am
Pinned Question
0
Which of the following communicable (i.e., infectious) diseases will cause the most total deaths in 2025 globally according to the WHO?
dockterx
Open 01/08/25 10:33pm 01/08/25 10:33pm
Pinned Question
0
Will China invade Taiwan before their national football team advance to FIFA world cup final stage?
chern-yi-Lee
Open 12/24/24 11:47am 12/24/24 11:47am
Pinned Question
2
Will Turkiye invade Syria before January 1 2026
Plataea479
Open 12/17/24 02:11pm 02/06/25 03:43pm
Pinned Question
1
Will there be a massive deployment over 50 million doses of vaccimd documented case of human to human spread of H5N1 in the US before Jan 1 2025 after FDA approval of a MRNA vaccine
Plataea479
Open 12/12/24 02:45pm 12/17/24 02:13pm
Pinned Question
1
Will WHO declare this the next Pandemic ? An unknown illness has emerged in the Congo region of Africa, specifically in the Panzi health zone of Kwango province. The disease has resulted in at least 67 deaths between November 10 and November 25, 2024. The symptoms reported include fever, headaches, coughing, and anemia.
Captbullett
Open 12/03/24 11:56pm 12/17/24 02:13pm
Pinned Question
0
Will Bashir Assad still be internationally recognized as President of Syria on Dec 31 2026, or will he cease to act in that role for any reason.
Plataea479
Open 11/30/24 02:41pm 01/07/25 08:01pm
Pinned Question
-3
Good day
this is a link to the data on the question == "What action will Trump's administration take against Iran?"
https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-justice-department-iran-83cff84a7d65901a058ad6f41a564bdb
"What action will Trump's administration take against Iran?" https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-justice-department-iran-83cff84a7d65901a058ad6f41a564bdb "WASHINGTON (AP) — The Justice Department on Friday disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Donald Trump, charging a man who said he had been tasked by a government official before this week’s election with planning the assassination of the Republican president-elect. Investigators were told of the plan to kill Trump by Farhad Shakeri, an accused Iranian government asset who spent time in American prisons for robbery and who authorities say maintains a network of criminal associates enlisted by Tehran for surveillance and murder-for-hire plots. Shakeri told the FBI that a contact in Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard instructed him this past September to set aside other work he was doing and assemble a plan within seven days to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, according to a criminal complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan."
Got it! Let's refine your question and consider possible outcomes. Here's a more focused version of your question:
Refined Question: "What specific actions will the Trump administration take in response to the disclosed Iranian murder-for-hire plot against Donald Trump?" Possible Outcomes: Diplomatic Measures: The Trump administration could pursue diplomatic channels, such as imposing additional sanctions on Iran, seeking international condemnation, or working with allies to isolate Iran diplomatically. Military Response: There could be a military response, ranging from targeted strikes against Iranian assets to increased military presence in the region to deter further aggression. Cyber Operations: The administration might launch cyber operations to disrupt Iranian networks and capabilities, aiming to weaken their ability to carry out such plots. Legal Actions: The U.S. could pursue legal actions against individuals involved in the plot, including seeking extradition of suspects and prosecuting them under U.S. law. Intelligence and Security Enhancements: Enhancing intelligence operations and security measures to prevent future plots and protect key figures. Public Statements and Warnings: Issuing strong public statements condemning the plot and warning Iran of severe consequences for any further attempts. These outcomes cover a range of potential responses, from diplomatic to military and legal actions.
Captbullett
Open 11/08/24 11:21pm 02/05/25 07:30pm
Pinned Question
2
Will RAND ever publish any questions that are suggested using the Create New Question feature that have been created since 2022, before 01JAN27?
000
Open 11/08/24 12:32pm 12/10/24 12:46pm
Pinned Question
1
Will there be a complete cessation of hostilities in Gaza before 01MAR25?
000
Open 11/07/24 06:36pm 01/06/25 01:26am
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