What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022?
Started
Mar 31, 2022 04:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM (2 years ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
In the face of the semi-conductor shortage, the U.S. is seeking to increase its chip manufacturing capabilities by developing domestic fabs (WSJ, Forbes, Roll Call). Photolithography is a critical component of these fabrication facilities, and ASML is the world leader in that field (Fortune, ETF).
Question will be resolved based on ASML’s 2022 full year results. The full year results for 2021 were published in January of 2022. The percentage of lithography sales by region/country can be found on the pie charts labeled “Region gross (ship to location)” on page 9 of the investor presentation, which can be downloaded directly from that page.
Resolution Notes
ASML reported 7% sales to the U.S. in 2022.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 7% | |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 10% | 83% | |
| Between 10% and 15%, inclusive | 10% | |
| More than 15% | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 62 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 332 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Mar 31, 2022 3:15PM EDT (275 days before close, question was 0% complete)