What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022?
Started
Apr 14, 2022 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Closed Jul 05, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Multiple semiconductor manufacturing companies have built or plan to build new fabs in Arizona. The availability of water has been of concern (The Verge, CNBC).
Question will be resolved based on data from the US Drought Monitor for 5 July 2022, expected to be available later that week.
To access data for Arizona, change the “Area Type” filter to “State” and the “Area” filter to “Arizona”.
"Severe drought or worse" refers to a U.S. Drought Monitor classification of D2-D4 (severe, extreme, or exceptional drought).
Resolution Notes
USDM recorded 69.79% at D2-D4 classification for Arizona on 2022-07-05.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 50% | 2% | |
| More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% | 3% | |
| More than or equal to 60% but less than 70% | 26% | |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 80% | 60% | |
| More than or equal to 80% | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 96 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 322 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
