Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?
Started
Apr 28, 2022 04:00PM
Closed Apr 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Closed Apr 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
Disputes over the border between China and India have resulted in fatal clashes in recent years (Carnegie Endowment). This question will be resolved using open source media reporting. Note that clashes do not necessarily have to be about the border dispute to count for the purposes of this question. Civilian fatalities will be included in the count.
Assessing fatalities in conflict situations is complex. INFER will use all available evidence to assess the number of fatalities. When ranges are provided, we will tend toward the most conservative estimate.
Additional reading:
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.10% | |
| No | 98.90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 111 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 646 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Apr 28, 2022 4:54PM EDT (337 days before close, question was 0% complete)