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International Diplomacy & Conflict

Closing

Jan 1, 2026 04:59AM (9 months)

From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.

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If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 89 · 173

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 64 · 104

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 99 · 434

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 98 · 342

5%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 112 · 416

10%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 66 · 297

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 48 · 231

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 125 · 499

5%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM · 61 · 255

2%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM · 52 · 335