Related question. We previously asked a version of this question for the year-period beginning August 1, 2021. The final consensus forecast for that period was 36%. 

Context. The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response." An IHR Emergency Committee comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.

Since 2007, the WHO has made six PHEIC declarations: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).

Resolution details. This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. 

Question format. This question asks about the four-quarter period (year) beginning with the following quarter. For example, a forecast made on November 15 (Q4) is forecasting January (Q1) through December (Q4) of the following year. It rolls over at the beginning of every quarter: January 1, April 1, July 1, and October 1, functionally becoming a new question. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this blog post.

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This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd).

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