Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?
Started
Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Seasons
General elections are scheduled to occur in Brazil to elect the President, Vice President, and much of the Federal Congress on 2 October 2022. The first round will occur on 2 October 2022 for the President and Vice President. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff election on 30 October 2022 occurs between the first and second vote-receivers (International Foundation for Electoral Systems). President Jair Bolsonaro has said that he may not accept the result of the presidential election and that he would not hand over the presidency if there was any vote fraud, which includes his demand that the current computerized voting system is replaced by paper ballots. Bolsonaro's comments have added to concerns that he is setting the stage to refuse to accept a potential election loss (Reuters).
Additional reading:
- Brazil’s True Believers: Bolsonaro and the Risks of an Election Year - Crisis Group
- Might Jair Bolsonaro try to steal Brazil’s election? - The Economist
- Revista Estudos Eleitorais Vol. 12 nº2 (2017) - Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (in Portuguese)
This question will resolve as “Yes” if Jair Bolsonaro or an entity acting on his behalf (e.g., the Liberal Party/PL) either files an action for an electoral judicial investigation or a challenge to an electoral mandate following the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).
Resolution Notes
Bolsonaro issued a formal challenge to election results under the claim that some voting machines had malfunctioned. Judge Alexandre de Moraes rejected the challenge.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-files-complaint-challenge-election-results-2022-11-22/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/24/brazil-judge-fines-bolsonaro-allies-millions-after-bad-faith-election-challenge
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 85.08% | |
No | 14.92% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 86 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 161 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |