What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?
Started
Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Seasons
The Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, dissolved on 30 June 2022, and the Yesh Atid party head, Yair Lapid, began serving as the caretaker Prime Minister (CNN). On 1 November 2022 Israel is scheduled to hold elections for its 120-seat parliament as a result.
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). If after the election a government cannot be formed, new elections will be called.
Resolution Notes
Benjamin Netanyahu was sworn-in as prime minister of a coalition government on 29 December 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64115141
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/29/middleeast/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-swearing-in-intl/index.html
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister | 20% | |
| A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister | 54% | |
| A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister | 7% | |
| A coalition government is not formed | 19% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 47 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 125 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
