What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?
Started
Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM
Closed Nov 1, 2022 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Closed Nov 1, 2022 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
The Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, dissolved on 30 June 2022, and the Yesh Atid party head, Yair Lapid, began serving as the caretaker Prime Minister (CNN). On 1 November 2022 Israel is scheduled to hold elections for its 120-seat parliament as a result.
This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). If after the election a government cannot be formed, new elections will be called.
Resolution Notes
Benjamin Netanyahu was sworn-in as prime minister of a coalition government on 29 December 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64115141
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/29/middleeast/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-swearing-in-intl/index.html
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister | 20% | |
| A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister | 54% | |
| A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister | 7% | |
| A coalition government is not formed | 19% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 47 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 125 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 28, 2022 3:46PM EDT (95 days before close, question was 0% complete)