What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?

Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM
Closed Nov 1, 2022 03:59AM (2 years ago)

The Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, dissolved on 30 June 2022, and the Yesh Atid party head, Yair Lapid, began serving as the caretaker Prime Minister (CNN). On 1 November 2022 Israel is scheduled to hold elections for its 120-seat parliament as a result. 

This question will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). If after the election a government cannot be formed, new elections will be called.
Resolution Notes

Benjamin Netanyahu was sworn-in as prime minister of a coalition government on 29 December 2022.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64115141
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/29/middleeast/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-swearing-in-intl/index.html

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister 20%
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister 54%
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister 7%
A coalition government is not formed 19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 125
Average for questions older than 6 months: 228
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.197553
2.
-0.162355
3.
-0.133925
4.
-0.127616
5.
-0.110624

Consensus Trend

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 28, 2022 3:46PM EDT (95 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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