Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?

Started Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC

Italy will hold an early election on 25 September 2022 after President Sergio Mattarella officially called the vote and dissolved parliament on 21 July following Mario Draghi’s resignation as prime minister. The center-right Brothers of Italy and the center-left Democratic Party are head-to-head in the first polls conducted after Draghi’s resignation, with Brothers of Italy emerging as the main party in the center-right coalition (Bloomberg).

This question will resolve “Yes” if the Brothers of Italy Party wins a plurality of seats in the Italian Parliament following the 25 September 2022 general election. This question will be resolved once results are finalized, and will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 88.59%
No 11.41%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.192329
2.
-0.19116
3.
-0.185864
4.
-0.172005
5.
-0.130426

Consensus Trend

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