Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election?
Started
Jul 28, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 25, 2022 03:59AM UTC
Seasons
Italy will hold an early election on 25 September 2022 after President Sergio Mattarella officially called the vote and dissolved parliament on 21 July following Mario Draghi’s resignation as prime minister. The center-right Brothers of Italy and the center-left Democratic Party are head-to-head in the first polls conducted after Draghi’s resignation, with Brothers of Italy emerging as the main party in the center-right coalition (Bloomberg).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Brothers of Italy Party wins a plurality of seats in the Italian Parliament following the 25 September 2022 general election. This question will be resolved once results are finalized, and will be resolved using reputable open-source news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC).
Resolution Notes
The Brothers of Italy won 26% of the vote, the most of any individual party.
https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63029909
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/sep/25/italian-election-2022-live-official-results
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 88.59% | |
| No | 11.41% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 129 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 226 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
