From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?
Started
Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select the following event types:
- Battles
- Violence against civilians
- Explosions/Remote violence
- Riots
- Protests
- Select “Israel (7/7)” and “Palestine (2/2)” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”
For reference, there ACLED recorded 139 fatalities from 1 Aug 2021 to 31 July 2022.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 383 fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank from 1 Aug 2022 to 31 July 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.10% | |
| No | 99.90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 398 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
