From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?
Started
Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM
Closed Aug 1, 2023 04:00AM (2 years ago)
Closed Aug 1, 2023 04:00AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select the following event types:
- Battles
- Violence against civilians
- Explosions/Remote violence
- Riots
- Protests
- Select “Israel (7/7)” and “Palestine (2/2)” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”
For reference, there ACLED recorded 139 fatalities from 1 Aug 2021 to 31 July 2022.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 383 fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank from 1 Aug 2022 to 31 July 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.10% | |
| No | 99.90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 398 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 11, 2022 4:30PM EDT (355 days before close, question was 0% complete)