From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?
Started
Aug 11, 2022 08:30PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Seasons
This question will be resolved using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset. We will use UCDP’s best estimates to count the total number of fatalities (column: best). We will only count fatalities from entries that:
- Start on or after 1 Aug 2022 (column: date_start)
- End on or before 31 July 2023 (column: date_end)
- Pertain to the “Iran - Israel” conflict (column: conflict_name)
If date_start and date_end are not available, we will use the earliest date listed in the source_date column.
A simplified spreadsheet containing select columns from events the UCDP GED attributed to the Iran - Israel conflict is available here. We will update this spreadsheet monthly as new data become available through the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset. As of Version 22.0.6 (June 2022), 3 fatalities have been recorded in 2022. Version 22.1 contains the following fatality counts from previous years:
- 2017: 2
- 2018: 111
- 2019: 138
- 2020: 461
- 2021: 162
Additional Reading:
- Iranian officers' mysterious deaths probed amid rising tensions with Israel (ABC News)
- Israel Tells U.S. It Killed Iranian Officer, Official Says (New York Times)
- Iran suspects Israel killed 2 scientists by poisoning their food — report (Times of Israel)
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.03% | |
| No | 99.97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 42 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 272 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 222 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
