From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?

Started Aug 18, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in Ethiopia for a given time period: 

  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
  • Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter. 
  • Select “Ethiopia” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters”.
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.

Additional Reading:

Resolution Notes

ACLED reported 1658 fatalities from violence against civilians in Ethiopia from 1 Aug 2022 to 31 July 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.03%
No 99.97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 310
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001543
2.
-0.001088
3.
-0.000757
4.
-0.000261
5.
-0.000251

Consensus Trend

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