From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria?
Started
Aug 25, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
Seasons
This question will be resolved using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset. We will use UCDP’s best estimates to count the total number of fatalities for the targets of non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology.
A simplified spreadsheet containing select columns from GED events involving non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in North Central and North West Nigeria is available here. We will update this spreadsheet monthly as new data become available through the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset. As of Version 22.0.7 (July 2022), 1 fatality has been recorded in 2022.
About this data:
- We will only count fatalities from entries that start on or after 1 Aug 2022 (column: date_start) and end on or before 31 July 2023 (column: date_end).
- Nigeria’s North Central and North West zones comprise the following territories:
- North Central: Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Federal Capital Territory
- North West: Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara
- This dataset includes conflicts involving non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology. Currently, this list includes IS, Boko Haram (coded as "Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad" in GED), and Jama'atu Ansarul Musilimina fi Biladi Sudan. When appropriate, other groups may be added in accordance with the criteria established in the Nonstate Armed Groups (NAGs) coding scheme.
- The variable sal_deaths is calculated by summing the number of civilian deaths along with deaths of any combatants that were the targets of the Salafist groups. Fatalities suffered by Salafist groups are not included in the count.
- Fatality totals from previous years are as follows:
- 2009: 0
- 2010: 80
- 2011: 78
- 2012: 389
- 2013: 34
- 2014: 450
- 2015: 147
- 2019: 0
- 2020: 0
- 2021: 24
- 2022: 1
- Note that for 2016, 2017, 2018 there were no conflicts that met the criteria needed to become eligible for this dataset. In years where there were 0 reported fatalities, there were eligible conflicts, but 0 fatalities were reported.
Additional Reading:
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.26% | |
| No | 99.74% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 38 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 238 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 223 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
