From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?
Started
Sep 1, 2022 07:00PM
Closed Sep 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Closed Sep 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in India for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
- Select “India” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”.
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 351 fatalities
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.02% | |
| No | 99.98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 52 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 374 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 1, 2022 3:00PM EDT (364 days before close, question was 0% complete)