From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?

Started Sep 01, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in India for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter. 
  • Select “India” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters”.
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.


Additional Reading: 

Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 351 fatalities

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.02%
No 99.98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 52
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 374
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000415
2.
-0.000408
3.
-0.000384
4.
-0.00038
5.
-0.000356

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username