From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?
Started
Sep 1, 2022 07:00PM
Closed Sep 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Closed Sep 1, 2023 03:59AM (2 years ago)
Seasons
This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in El Salvador for a given time period:
- Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates.
- Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter.
- Select “El Salvador” from the Region filter.
- Click “Apply Filters”.
- Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.
Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes
ACLED recorded 32 fatalities
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.44% | |
| No | 99.56% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 55 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 374 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Consensus Trend
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 1, 2022 3:00PM EDT (364 days before close, question was 0% complete)