From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?

Started Sep 01, 2022 07:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC

This question will be resolved using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project’s dashboard. To count the number of fatalities in El Salvador for a given time period: 
  • Adjust the “Event Date” filter to the relevant dates. 
  • Select “Violence against civilians” from the event type filter. 
  • Select “El Salvador” from the Region filter. 
  • Click “Apply Filters”.
  • Change the dropdown box located on the upper right side of the line graph from “Event Count” to “Fatalities”.

Additional Reading:
Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 32 fatalities

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.44%
No 99.56%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 374
Average for questions older than 6 months: 222
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005269
2.
-0.00503
3.
-0.003739
4.
-0.002229
5.
-0.001706

Consensus Trend

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